Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 14.261506 16.279639 18.443480 20.931646 23.709105 26.709392 30.190851
2025-09-07 11.291060 14.046806 17.222508 21.134425 25.803883 31.178277 37.810246
2025-09-14 9.955935 13.084296 16.857449 21.708622 27.741757 34.956468 44.191208
2025-09-21 8.575308 11.858703 15.988694 21.509880 28.634813 37.450610 49.105151
2025-09-28 7.220521 10.463684 14.702495 20.572403 28.401856 38.386274 51.965459
2025-10-05 6.672299 10.063367 14.642017 21.173173 30.127796 41.835504 58.133232
2025-10-12 6.155034 9.637721 14.484948 21.591378 31.584178 44.949740 63.951601
2025-10-19 5.540345 9.002894 13.968161 21.445140 32.219780 46.950047 68.318902
2025-10-26 4.991531 8.406416 13.445679 21.230050 32.710619 48.732201 72.416681
2025-11-02 4.576858 7.971683 13.117473 21.256952 33.520723 50.961367 77.191132
2025-11-09 4.247823 7.638323 12.909245 21.433891 34.536477 53.498745 82.473150
2025-11-16 3.898821 7.238046 12.561720 21.363000 35.158543 55.468260 86.985097
2025-11-23 3.550287 6.813124 12.152314 21.180797 35.618569 57.246484 91.337818
2025-11-30 3.296733 6.527808 11.946147 21.303819 36.548853 59.755937 96.866661
2025-12-07 3.158165 6.431112 12.040743 21.911487 38.257955 63.494769 104.361723
2025-12-14 2.889551 6.071888 11.660694 21.700840 38.631260 65.177502 108.760593
2025-12-21 2.531510 5.509468 10.882832 20.759532 37.748321 64.840537 109.991067
2025-12-28 2.441669 5.453972 10.998966 21.363824 39.452539 68.655593 117.854416
2026-01-04 2.331717 5.348033 11.013943 21.785771 40.860222 72.035591 125.127954
2026-01-11 2.153801 5.087405 10.722768 21.638222 41.277619 73.809951 129.868589
2026-01-18 1.982848 4.824266 10.406387 21.421490 41.555900 75.353010 134.268864
2026-01-25 1.855339 4.640990 10.229337 21.448586 42.257833 77.616231 139.911578
2026-02-01 1.754615 4.506338 10.137158 21.626927 43.231942 80.363342 146.432943